What does the CEO of Nextel Communications, Inc., have in common with Malcolm Gladwell, the professor of sociology and technology visionary? The answer is a firm belief in the notion of the existence of "tipping points."

Contrary to many doomsters and naysayers in the industry, Donahue - always as passionate about business as he is about wireless - is happy to go on record as saying that the tipping point will be reached this year. 2003, so far as he is concerned, will be The Year of Wireless.

Donahue isn't shooting with blanks. He has helped to propel Nextel from being a self-confessed bit player ten years ago, with a long-range "walkie-talkie" technology that was tested in collaboration with Motorola and seemed, well, kinda interesting - to being the fifth largest wireless carrier in the entire USA, with revenues in 2002 of $8.7 billion and over ten million subscribers. He has a nationwide reputation for clarity of thought and action. While other actors on the wireless stage may have stumbled and fallen, Nextel has not just survived, it has prevailed. And in the enterprise space, in particular, it has taken center stage.

Why 2003 in particular, though - why is the tipping point being reached now, does Donahue think? Especially since, strictly speaking, commercial wireless services are celebrating their twentieth year.

"It's a convergence of factors," Donahue says. "First, as I look at the wireless space overall what I see above all is the incredible growth in the number of minutes of use of wireless networks, ours and everyone else's."

"Then comes the fact that, in comparison to other regions in the world, North America still has such low penetration - that speaks to immediate business opportunity on a massive scale."

"Also, consumers right now are devouring wireless applications and services on a level that few could have imagined a decade ago," he adds.

"Next comes the fact that all the carriers, not just Nextel, have better networks than ever before, a situation being mirrored by an 18% migration in 2002 alone from wireline to wireless as the main conduit for voice traffic."

"And we are also getting our chops together about the importance of wireless data," Donahue notes. "Taken together, these factors indicate a massive momentum, one that I believe will make 2003 the defining year for wireless."

Nextel's original idea of combining a cellular phone with a walkie-talkie has come a long, long way in ten years. It remains the undisputed champion of "push-to-talk" technology (a term that many prefer nowadays), and continues year on year to discover and then supply new market segments, as it discovers new categories of customer that find they need to be in contact at the press of a single button.

Pioneers of progress by partnership, Nextel sets a blazing example to the industry as a whole. With Motorola, it has famously demonstrated always-on iDEN technology to be a hugely scalable solution, which no skeptic would have believed when it was launched as the world's first all-digital 2.5G network. According to EVP and CTO Barry West, "the iDEN network is scaling and people are surprised, but they shouldn't be as it is grounded in GSM."

"72 billion minutes were switched in our networks last year," West adds, "and network quality remains our number one mantra, so we're not complacent, investment in our network continues - between ourselves and our partners we have 240 million POPs to date, and have authorized 1000 cell sites for additional coverage." In 2002 Nextel's capital expenditures amounted to $1.8 billion, with a similar amount budgeted for 2003. So West can safely say that Nextel practices what it preaches.

For Donahue, though, even having 10,681,000 customers using the largest all-digital, voice-over-IP packet data network in the world, and generating $1.66 billion of income for Nextel in 2002, isn't enough. For him, the demonstration of a tipping point in 2003 needs to be measurable so far as his company is concerned by all the standard metrics of the wireless world: subscriber additions, ARPU, customer churn, and - ultimately - EBITDA, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

"There are six players in the industry," he says, "Five compete on price, one competes on services and products, and that's Nextel."

The carrier's aims for 2003, Donahue says, are to achieve net subscriber additions of 1.7 million ("that's a minimum," he adds, bullishly), to achieve a positive free cash flow of $500 million or more, and to generate earning per share of at least 75 cents.

Nextel is also aiming to raise EBITDA from 2002's $3.13 billion to $3.8 billion ("or more") in 2003.

Can it be done - by Nextel, by anyone? Is this truly "The Year of Wireless"? Anyone who wants to find out for themselves is probably spending the week in the Big Easy, New Orleans, where CTIA Wireless 2003 opens today - "the world's largest wireless trade show" as its press releases are always careful to say. There are expected to be attendees from 90 countries, and there's an all-star lineup of wireless CEOs on the keynote roster for Day One, from Motorola's Chris Galvin to Nokia's Jorma Ollila.

On Tuesday morning it will be Donahue's turn. Since Nextel has been generating margins of 40% he will be better placed than any other CEO on the podium - and he'll be flanked by his opposite numbers at Sprint PCS, O2, and T-Mobile USA among others - to tell how, properly deployed, wireless can help business drive top line revenue down into their bottom line, by helping make their field forces more efficient and/or reducing the costs associated with it.

"I think 2003 is going to be a fabulous year for Nextel," Donahue proclaims, "And far better for the industry overall than most people are currently saying."

If Nextel makes its numbers in 2003, there will be over 12 million Nextel subscribers to attest to accuracy of Donahue's prediction.